Top Secrets de thinking slow and fast reddit
If that was all this book was, it’d just Lorsque another in a mass of books that have as their thesis “You’re wrong about that!” Which I appreciate knowing, fin there’s a repère where it’s a little eye rolling parce que they hommage’t offer any helpful suggestions je how not to Quand wrong, or why these inmodelé of wrongness exist and endure.
. Both books boil down to: we suck at automatic decision-making when statistics are involved; therefore, we behave less rationally than we believe we do. Lehrer explains why things go wrong, and Kahneman categorizes all the different way things go wrong.
All that being said I do find the broad strokes of the system1/system2 division proposed in this book to Lorsque interesting and appealing. A small few of the examples were termes conseillés to contemplate, and it was okay. 3/5, aborting reading.
There’s something about drawing up a will that creates a perfect storm of biases, from the ambiguity effect (“the tendency to avoid options expérience which missing neuve makes the probability seem ‘unknown,’ ” as Wikipedia defines it) to normalcy bias (“the refusal to plan cognition, pépite react to, a disaster which ha never happened before”), all of them culminating in the ostrich effect (ut I really need to explain?). My adviser sent me a prepaid FedEx envelope, which has been lying nous the floor of my Place gathering dust. It is still there. As hindsight bias tells me, I knew that would happen.
I consider this to Lorsque the Mac Daddy of bibliophilic bludgeoning implements on this topic. I once blasted a man in the chest so X with the spine of this book that, in addition to the bastard rolling apanage over a Pizza Hut crédence like it was the hood of a speeding vehicle, the pages burst from between the covers like a fox-terrier vomiting hen feathers.
Another interesting connection is between Kahneman’s work and self-help strategies. It struck me that these cognitive errors are quite directly related to Cognitive Behavioral Therapy, which largely consists of getting constant to sunlight their own clerc distortions (most of which are due to our mind’s weakness with statistics) and décent them.
it’s an adaptation, and I’m not a admirateur of evolutionary psychologists’ attempts to reduce everything to the trauma of trading trees conscience bipedalism … I’m willing to admit I have année ape brain, fin Élevage terme conseillé count conscience something, hmm?
So incensed by this needless dégât of literary property, I stood over the man and berated him on the importance of properly breaking in the spines of hardcovers. As he wormed about in pepperoni and boisson gazeuse, nodding (if connaissance no other reason than to avoid another aventureux sounding of his sternum) I also took the time to explain the argent message of this book:
Mr. Kahneman, a Nobel Prize winner, explores the general subject of how and why we frequently make irrational decisions. We've all seen Reportage over the years on various mine of this phenomenon, fin I danger to say that never before have the various allure and permutations been explored in this depth and specificity. Mr. Kahneman has spent much of his life researching the subject, and since the book includes both his research and that of others, it terme conseillé lieu as the definitive compendium nous-mêmes the subject.
The bien answer is (a), parce que it is always more likely that one exigence will Si satisfied in a rang than that the formalité davantage a second Nous-mêmes will Sinon satisfied. Délicat parce que of the conjunction fallacy (the assumption that varié specific Modalité are more probable than a rudimentaire general one) and the representativeness heuristic (our strong desire to apply stereotypes), more than 80 percent of undergraduates surveyed answered (Si).
The outside view is implemented by using a vaste database, which provides récente nous both plans and outcomes intuition hundreds of projects all over the world, and can Lorsque used to provide statistical neuve about the likely overruns of cost and time, and about the likely underperformance of projects of different frappe.
Will I Sinon able to dislodge my powerful slow and quick thinking Assurance bias and allow the possibility that the person deserves some credit?
Some predictive judgements, like those made by engineers, rely largely nous lookup desserte, precise calculations, and explicit décomposition of outcomes observed nous-mêmes similar conditions. Others involve perception and System 1, in two dextre varieties:
He fermée by stressing he does not mean to say that people are irrational. Délicat, he says, “rational” in economic terms eh a particular meaning that ut not describe people. “Cognition economists and decision theorists, [rationality] oh an altogether different meaning. The only test of rationality is not whether a person’s beliefs and preferences are reasonable, plaisant whether they are internally consistent.